Labor need the remaining votes to actually break stronger for them compared to the Libs than they have, to get in front of them. Since Labor already needs the support of the Greens to pass anything through the Senate, it doesnt make a huge difference in practical terms whether they also need Greens (or Independent) support in the House or have a majority in their own right. The current 3CP order after about 87,000 votes is 1 Libs, 2 Labor, 3 Greens. Patreons analysis is on the money and there could actually be up to 6500 votes left if more postals are received (the last batch actually did break 26 LIB, 29 ALP, 33 GRN, 12 OTH which is enough to keep the Liberals ahead of Labor). Support local journalism. Liberal vote recovered in parts of Caulfield which isnt good news for Labor holding onto Macnamara at the next election. 3483 remaining and they are breaking 25.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 30.8% GRN and 15.6% Other. Redistribution Macnamara lost Windsor to Higgins. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteran William Johnson, who sits on the city's Board of Adjustments. In other words, current vote trends are extending the Liberals 50 vote lead, and closing the Greens 495 vote deficit to push Labor into third. Theyare elected by citywide vote, serve four-year terms, andrepresentadistrict of the city. Further, I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department. The Liberals are still 3rd on the primary vote, so unless they can improve on absentees,postals,provisionals then they will remain 3rd. Wills ( ALP 8.5% v GRN) is the seat for former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and runs north-west between Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek from inner-city Brunswick to the Western Ring Road. The red line in the chart below highlights how strong Labor's two-party preferred vote is in Melbourne compared to Victoria as a whole, consistently 15-20% higher. Labor 33.48% (31,149) 3. This month, council members are voting on Melbourne's proposed$242 million total city budget for 2022-23, among other topics. The Greens are only 495 votes behind Labor in the 3CP count. Candidate Johnson said he planned on focusing on the citys continued upward trending growth. At Michael Danby's last election in 2016, the Liberals polled 41.9% on first preferences to Labor 27.0% and the Greens 23.8%. This information is updated hourly. William Bowe actually says he thinks its trending Greens. It seems that the Greens overperformed federal results in Prahran and underperformed in Albert Park and Labor vice versa. Where possible, the natural flow and filtering of runoff must be restored. Either way, the boost in Labor support at the expense of the Liberal Party in 2019 boosts Josh Burns' prospects of holding Macnamara in 2022 against both his political opponents. . Greens overtaking Labor means Labor will finish 3rd. At first glance that looks like Labor would outperform the Liberals right? Sure, the 2CP run-off will be revealed upon the throw of all preferences. Please note that ballot preparation procedures vary by state and between jurisdictions within states. It might be close but hard to see. Also disagree with you Dan M. It is completely misleading to analyse the Labor Albert Park Margin and Caulfield Margin considering that Balaclava, St Kilda and other areas are in the Caulfield electorate (fairly progressive electorates). Conservatives doing better on postals isnt always the case in progressive seats. Pht sng trc tip trn u Green Gully Cavaliers U21 vs Port Melbourne Sharks SC U21 AUS VPL U21 trong khun kh gii VQG Jordan full HD tc cao vi bnh lun min ph ti Trc Tip Bng . From his post 24 hours ago: All of this amounts to bad news for Labor in its quest for 76 seats, with Brisbane now out of the picture and the odds most likely leaning against them in Macnamara, which I for one thought they had in the bag earlier in the week, and which my results system is continuing to call as Labor retain due to its inability to think in three-party terms.. 1. (Melbourne local time. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Four incumbents Mayor Paul Alfrey,District 1 Council Member Tim Thomas,District 3 Council Member Yvonne Minus andDistrict 5 Council Member Mimi Hanley are not on the ballot this fall. This is a seat where Labor has usually trailed on first preference votes, relying on Australian Democrat and more recently on Green preferences to come from behind and win. Following its extension eastwards to Caulfield and other Liberal-voting areas in the 1990 redistribution, it became much less secure for Labor. First Preference Results 1983-2019 After the exclusion of several minor party candidates with 7.3% between them, the three-candidate count had become Liberal 43.7%, Labor 28.7% to Greens 27.6%. I agree, PN. Being able to communicate answers to these folks with some type of clarity is where Im passionate. New developments cannot be at the expense of our existing neighborhoods. Council members also comprise three of the seven members of the. Greens actually finished 594 votes behind Labor in the 3PP count which is about 200-300 more than I expected based on the earlier preference throws which had it a lot closer. Six candidates are vying for three seats on the Melbourne City Council on the Nov. 8 ballot, with hopes of helping guide governmental operations of one of the Space Coast's dominant economic communities. To date, I have been instrumental in working with our Tallahassee representatives to bring back $3 million-plus for water projects to Melbourne. If anything, I would be extremely worried if I was Josh Burns. Growth will continue in West Melbourne," Johnson said. I can see the Greens overtaking Labor. Support local journalism. Current 3CP count: 1. The event was moderated by Stephen Mayne. The second last exclusion (UAP) is what leapfrogged the Liberals from 3rd to 1st and eliminated the Greens. [1] It also had a large gay and lesbian community. The votes in these categories already counted are favouring Greens by a good enough margin to close the gap between Labor and Greens on primary which makes it likely for Greens to overtake Labor on minor Party preferences at the 3pp stage. The top two issues in the community I represent are affordable housing and homeless social issues. I support the use of all available tools, including fee-based programs that would be paid for by polluters, but could result in significant savings for our citizens, like septic system improvements, odor controland enhanced water testing. Labor's vote fell further in 2016, finishing third behind the Liberal candidate, and stayed in third place at the 2019 election after Labor disendorsed its candidate mid-campaign. For more information, see Assume no leap in turnout leaves 8 792 votes remaining to be counted, less 6.44% informal rate (566 votes) = 8 226 votes;- are not sufficient from which Green & Liberals can find 8 295 primary votes. A study reviewing the need for a city fire station could come before the mayor and the other six CityCouncil members by October. Frank Crean was Treasurer in the Whitlam government and is the father of former Labor Leader Simon Crean. There is an emergency bushfire warning in place for Maintongoonin Victoria. Amazing result from Steph Hodgins-May and even if she doesnt win, hopefully it will energize her to try a 4th time. The only things saving Josh Burns here today are the cratering Liberal vote and, most importantly of all, the perfect little gerrymander with Higgins. East of Hotham, the Glen Eira part of St Kilda East is totally different and more similar to Caulfield North. But his initial victory had further boosted Green support by 2013, making Liberal preferences in Melbourne irrelevant. This made Adam Bandt the first Green to win a seat in the House of Representatives at a general election. Melbourne Ports had been a tight three-way contest in 2016, Labor's Michael Danby staying narrowly ahead of the Greens to eventually win a narrow victory over the Liberals on Green preferences. Bandt increased his primary vote further to 42.6% in 2013, allowing him to overcome the decision of the Liberal Party to reverse past preference recommendations and put Labor ahead of the Greens. Will the current flows (which put the Greens on track to pass Labor) continue? The Victorian redistribution in general will be fascinating. Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics. ABC has given Labor Macnamara and hence get a majority of 76 seats. For the latest information, searchABC Emergency, For the latestweather warnings in the Northern Territory, search onABC Emergency. Canadian airline coming: Sunwing Airlines to launch service from Melbourne to three Canadian cities in December, New police headquarters: Melbourne leaders dedicate $32 million police headquarters to force's lone fallen officer, Occupation:Realtor, private investigator, process server, notary, Education:Course study of sociology, with a concentration in forensic psychology, at Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, Political/government/civic experience:911 dispatcher; Space Coast Young Republicans; NAACP Legal Redress Team; attends Melbourne Police Community Relations Council meetings; 18th District process server, Campaign email:rachael4melbourne@gmail.com, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links:rachael4melbourne.com;Facebook: Rachael Bassett for Melbourne City Council. The electorate covers 40 square kilometres. The Port of Melbourne's commitments on pricing and consultation responds to the ESC's review of the port's compliance with the official pricing order, under which tariffs can only be increased once a year, and by no more than the consumer price index. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Stragan is an award-winning accountant, born in Melbourne to Ukrainian parents. 2019 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates for the House of Representatives seat of Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, was held on Tuesday, 16th April in the Community Facility at South Melbourne Primary School, 129 Ferrars St, Southbank. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. My prediction here is that the Greens will probably fall *just* short of knocking Labor out of second place, because just too much has to go right for them with such a small margin of error for it to happen. The Green line plots the Green two-candidate preferred vote against Labor 2007-2013 and against the Liberal Party in 2016 and 2019. Boyd Community Hub, 207 City Rd Southbank. As for the current results as they stand, the AEC has been conducting and publishing a 3CP count and the Liberals are in fact first: https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm. And no matter what the result, considering the Greens are currently third on 32.93% and all the remaining votes should favour them, I think its safe to say all 3 candidates will finish between a minimum of 33.1% and a maximum of 33.6% when the 3CP count is complete. These two factors, along with the unknown that is the ~1000 Covid phone votes, will most likely determine the outcome but either way, the 3CP count is headed for a photo finish with all 3 parties practically guaranteed to be over 33% with only a couple of hundred votes between them. 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